"Undermining my electoral viability since 2001."

US Forces for Lebanon? I hope to hell not...

John Robb has an "inside source" that says the 82nd Airborne will be deployed to Lebanon soon. This echoes speculation in Harpers that US Forces will be put in due to a lack of other countries feeling like putting their kids on the line to solve other peoples' problems.

Robb:

However, that won't work since Hezbollah won't comply. Their guerrillas will fight the effort and missiles will continue to fly. The result will be a widening of the war to include Syria and Iran to get at the "real sources" of the conflict...

This is something to watch for. This is something we should try NOT to do as a country. There's no benefit to us to getting involved here as a third party, and plenty of danger. Sadly, I think the political dynamics here are such that there will be no major mainstream opposition to such a deployment, and non-establishment action (e.g. protest, etc) won't start hitting where it hurts until things widen futher and there's a need for a draft or something. At which point...

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Rich get Richer

Sweet light crude:

Oil giant Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSa.L) beat forecasts on Thursday with a 36 percent rise in second-quarter profits, boosting its shares, as high oil prices more than compensated for disappointing production news.

Investors were also cheered by Shell's reaffirmation that it was sticking to its 2006 and 2007 spending plans, despite rampant sector cost inflation.

ConocoPhillips also boosted quarterly profit, making more than $2B more than in the same period in 2005.

With that, and the previous news on BP, I'll bet ExxonMobil and Chevron/Texaco turn in bumper quarterly earnings reports too. Two years ago would have been a great time to buy Oil Futures. Thankfully that kind of investment is out of reach of normal people and most mutual funds. Only for the big boys, you know?

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This Fall Could Be A Sea Change

The numbers are looking promising for the Democrats to be able to build some power this fall (addl. Kos analysis). If you're at all interested, check this stuff out.

That's important. It means there's a decent chance we'll finally put a check on the Bush administration, perhaps even start some investigations. If things go well it will mean building a national progressive consensus around key issues. Health Care will get another shot if we can put together two winning cycles in a row (e.g. gain ground this fall and then take either the White House or Congress in '08).

My advice for you? Get savvy on your representatives. This fall's action is going to be faught in over four-hundred 500,000-person districts. It's going to mean a lot of local nuance, which is where grassroots participation can make the biggest impact. There's also probably some important action at the state/county/city level. The best strategy here is to flood the zone; to push forward on every front and juice turnout as much as possible. At the very least get registered and vote Democrat in the fall, and try to get your friends to do the same. If you're on board for the slow-steady takeover of the government (e.g. you really want that Health Care, out of Iraq, etc), then find a campaign (even a long-shot) and get directly involved.

Getting involved is actually doubly important. It's necessary if the change is to happen, and should Dems indeed put together a comeback with our help, they're going to start getting more and more of that corporate slush money. HMOs, Big Pharma, and the Insurance Rackets all give to the GOP about 2-to-1, but that ratio will probably change if there's a transfer of power. People power will be critical in keeping 'em honest.

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The Invisible Hand Turned Out The Lights!

Power and Free Markets, a good post for those wondering whether there's a connection between turing over public goods, services and utilities to private corporations, and all the blackouts this summer. Hint: yes.

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